The back end of the Detroit Tigers lineup seems to be costing them run potential game after game. Let's take a look at what the Tigers bottom three hitters look like according to Baseball Prospectus' VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) statistic:
7) Brandon Inge -0.2 VORP
8) Gerald Laird -10.9 VORP
9) Adam Everett -5.9 VORP
VORP is measured in runs so if the Tabs just put fringe level Major League players in the last three spots in the order they would have scored 17 more runs than with Inge, Laird, and Everett in those spots. A general rule of thumb is every 10 runs is equal to 1 team win. By batting those below replacement players the Tigers have cost themselves 1.7 wins and we all know what 1 extra win would have gotten the Tabbies last year.
Let's take a look at the bottom three Tiger batters in a different context, TB/Out.
7) Brandon Inge .488 TB/Out
8) Gerald Laird .396 TB/Out
9) Adam Everett .348 TB/Out
These numbers also indicate poor production as half a total base per out is very average for a major leaguer. I believe as the season goes along Inge's TB/Out will rise above the 0.5 mark and eventually he will end up near 0.6 TB/Out. Laird and Everett on the other hand need to be replaced by more capable batters so that the Tigers do not lose any more run production than what a fringe level player could offer. In my opinion Alex Avila (.540 TB/Out) should replace Laird and Ramon "Big Time Charlie" Santiago (.581 TB/Out) should replace Everett on a regular basis. Let's hope Leyland and Dombrowski begin to realize how much the bottom portion of the order is hurting the Tabbies run production and make the change.
WALK STUDY UPDATE
Through 962 randomly charted MLB games, the team that takes more walks has won 652 of the games which is good for a .678 winning percentage. Over the course of a full 162 game season, a .678 winning percentage would amount to 110 wins and almost assuredly the best record in baseball.
Holla back with some comments and enjoy your weekend Kneesonbows nation!
No comments:
Post a Comment