Bad New Bears Back End

The back end of the Detroit Tigers lineup seems to be costing them run potential game after game. Let's take a look at what the Tigers bottom three hitters look like according to Baseball Prospectus' VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) statistic:

7) Brandon Inge -0.2 VORP
8) Gerald Laird -10.9 VORP
9) Adam Everett -5.9 VORP

VORP is measured in runs so if the Tabs just put fringe level Major League players in the last three spots in the order they would have scored 17 more runs than with Inge, Laird, and Everett in those spots. A general rule of thumb is every 10 runs is equal to 1 team win. By batting those below replacement players the Tigers have cost themselves 1.7 wins and we all know what 1 extra win would have gotten the Tabbies last year.

Let's take a look at the bottom three Tiger batters in a different context, TB/Out.

7) Brandon Inge .488 TB/Out
8) Gerald Laird .396 TB/Out
9) Adam Everett .348 TB/Out

These numbers also indicate poor production as half a total base per out is very average for a major leaguer. I believe as the season goes along Inge's TB/Out will rise above the 0.5 mark and eventually he will end up near 0.6 TB/Out. Laird and Everett on the other hand need to be replaced by more capable batters so that the Tigers do not lose any more run production than what a fringe level player could offer. In my opinion Alex Avila (.540 TB/Out) should replace Laird and Ramon "Big Time Charlie" Santiago (.581 TB/Out) should replace Everett on a regular basis. Let's hope Leyland and Dombrowski begin to realize how much the bottom portion of the order is hurting the Tabbies run production and make the change.


WALK STUDY UPDATE

Through 962 randomly charted MLB games, the team that takes more walks has won 652 of the games which is good for a .678 winning percentage. Over the course of a full 162 game season, a .678 winning percentage would amount to 110 wins and almost assuredly the best record in baseball.


Holla back with some comments and enjoy your weekend Kneesonbows nation!

Top Heavy Tabs

One must give Leyland credit for sending out the most effective lineup game after game. Here are the Tigers top 5 TB/Out contributors and their most frequent position in the lineup.

PLAYER TB/OUT Batting Pos.

1. Miguel Cabrera 1.10 4TH
2. Brennan Boesch 0.98 5TH
3. Magglio Ordonez 0.90 3RD
4. Johnny Damon 0.85 2ND
5. Austin Jackson 0.82 1ST


As you can see all five of the Tabs best hitters are in the top 5 of the lineup which allows them to get the majority of the team's plate appearances. Although this may seem like it's common sense, it is not always the case for managers to put their best hitters at the top of their order. For some reason that is not known to even the top scientists in the world managers will "go with their gut" and put players with inferior offensive skills in top half of the order while better batters are burried at the bottom of the order. In this aspect, Jim Leyland is thriving as the Tigers manager. I still believe, though, that he should set up the lineup in decreasing order of players' on-base percentage (OBP) as this way the team will make outs at the very slowest rate possible. This is important because outs are the "clock" in baseball and the quicker at team accumulates outs the quicker a team will reach its demise. In the Tigers' case, it would benefit them to bat Cabrera (.418 OBP) lead off, followed by Ordonez (.407), Damon (.393), Jackson (.393), and Ramon "Big Time Charlie" Santiago (.370). Carlos Guillen actually has an OBP of .391 but he is currently on the Disabled List. Leyland slotting Boesch (.362) in the 5th spot in the order can be justified though by his incredible contact to damage ratio which is seen in his amazing 0.98 TB/Out. All in all, I feel that Jim Leyland has set up his lineup to be very efficient in producing runs and keeping the "out clock" from expiring too quickly.

Observation of the day: As I continue to take in data on walks and their effect on winning or losing, a trend has emerged. I have charted 912 Major League Baseball games and the team that took more walks (gave up fewer walks) than their opponent won 620 of those games. That is good for a .680 winning percentage. To put that in to perspective, a team that has a .680 winning percentage for the season would win 110 games. 110 wins has only been achieved six times in the history of Major League Baseball. The ability to take and not give walks is extremely correlated to winning.

Through 24 games, Cabby continues to lead the Tabs in hitting with 1.16 TB/Out. Everett is the Tabbies poorest hitter with .303 TB/Out.

Fightin' Illitchs on display today

Today is a big day for the Detroit sports scene as both the Tabs and Wings are in action this afternoon. I wish I could be at Hockeytown or Chelli's to watch both of them simultaneously but I gotta put up with my stylish crib in Pittsburgh. My thumb will be sore from all the switching back in forth between the two games but 2 wins would be a cure for that.

A new rule has been added to the Rod Allen Game. Everytime Rod says Action Jackson, 11 drinks are awarded. This rule will be permanently put into the game by the all star break when the new RADG Champions Edition comes out.

Enjoy the games today folks. Let's Go Fightin Illitchs!! Holla at some victory Knees on Bows!

Teams that take more walks than their opponents win 68% of the time.

Miggy continues to lead the Tabs with 1.25 TB/Out. Maggs is 2nd with 1.06 TB/Out.

Miggy still leads the Tabs with 1.59 TB/Out. Maggs isn't far behind with 1.14 TB/Out. Pretty solid 3-4 hitters. Holla

Ryan Perry is the Tabs pitcher of the game throwing 92% of his pitches for strikes. He was able to get the final 4 outs of the game on only 11 pitches.

Through 2 games Miggy leads the Tabs with 1.6 TB/Out and G-Money is last on the squad with 0 TB/out.

Drink 5 for Nis on bows first appearance of the season

After Game number 1 of the 2010 Tabs season, Miggy leads the squad with 1.5 Total bases per out (TB/Out).

The Tabs began their spring training season today with a 13-1 victory over Florida Southern. The Tigers' pitchers piled up 12 Ks while only giving up 2 BBs.

Spring Training

Baseball is back! I love this time of the year. I'm even more fired up than if I was placed right in front of a taco bar. To get the sunshine of Florida on our brains, I am asking you all to respond to me on twitter (kneesonbows) with the one ball player you are really looking forward to watching this summer. Holla at me.

Flip Mode

Streak for the Cash

Wins have been tough to come by lately in this sadistic, yet addictive sports prognostication game ESPN offers. I have less success picking the soccer matches than the Lions have had winning regular season football games the past few years. Well, maybe I'm not quite that bad, but you get the picture. Anyway the reason in which I am writing this post is to inform yinz of the my wine 'em, minus the dine 'em, when I get to 69 wins reward. Anyone who is with me when I get my 69th win (I'm currently sitting on 63 wins) in ESPN's Streak for the Cash will get rewarded with an refreshing, Ice Cold sambucca shot. You must be at 21 years of age to be eligible and Canadians will receive double a double shot. Holla at some fun y'all.

By the way the equation predicts Purdue to defeat Wisconsin in a tight Big Ten battle tonight. Use this information at your own risk though because the equation is a pathetic 12-15 on the college hoops season. I can't figure out the damn home-court advantage.

enjoy your Thursday evening knees on bows nation. bloop bloop bloop

Happy 92nd birthday to Ernie Harwell! A true gentleman and scholar.

I am quite possibly the worst streak for the cash player in the nation

? ?;,O?? ?4w

? ?7 D ????? Z???9?? ???9? ???n??N %A?{?? ?? {z????g???|???? DG?A??? J?A2??\^?A?7??N??sP;? ??t?=?&???u DG???{Y^ ?? ?[NG??n?1?f??dP? ???

? ?;,O?? ?4w

Droopy puts the baby to bed.

The equation predicts Louisville to win a very tight contest at Seton Hall tonight.

Quick update: the equation predicts Pitt to defeat Georgetown tonight. Record for the year: 7-6

Sunday's Equation Pick-em

The equation picked two games today, UConn over Michigan in Ann Arbor and Akron over Buffalo in Buffalo. I have yet to find a viable coefficient to use to for homecourt advantage there for I'm just going with the team that the equation feels would win on a neutral court. This may seem silly considering home teams in NCAA basketball tend to have a sizeable advantage but in most of the games the equation has predicted so far the team it picked to win would be a large favorite on a neutral floor so I assumed they would still remain the favorite on a visiting floor. Hopefully, by next week I will have a home-court coefficient built into the equation. The equation's overall record for the year is 6-4.

p.s. Akron and Buffalo were very closesly rated by the equation so I would stay away from that game today. Holla

Another game the equation believes you should pick is Alabama over Arkansas.

The equation picked Syracuse to defeat West Virginia today. Through Friday, the equation sports a 5-3 record.

Northern Colorado @ Portland State

For those of you who play ESPN's Streak for Cash the equation picked Northern Colorado to defeat Portland State in a Big Sky men's basketball showdown tonight. Feel free to use this information to extend your streak. For those of you who play or wish to play join the Knees on Bows Streak for Cash group. It is a wicked fun time.

The equation correctly picked Arizona State to defeat Oregon last night and improved it's overall record to 5-2. I may attempt to tweak it a litte this weekend so any of you who have suggestions on statistics that correlate with winning in college basketball feel free to get at me on the blog or through e-mail (phatsix@hotmail.com).

Holla

Interesting Statistic

Ohio State was the only team in college football this season to defeat 5 teams with 10-plus wins.

Arizona State @ Oregon

The equation did not correctly pick the Cincinnati/St. John's game last night as the Bearcats lost a very close game to the Red Storm in New York City. In fact, Cincinnati held a one point lead with just 8.5 seconds remaining. Close, but no cigar for the equation. The equation's record now stands at 4-2 with much optimism.

Tonight's game is a PAC-10 clash between Arizona State and Oregon. The equation predicts the Sun Devils to go on the road to Eugene and come away with a fairly easy victory. Subjectively, I'm not so sure it will be as easy as the equation thinks. It is always a difficult time going on the road in conference and picking up a W. Be that as it may, the equation strongly suggests to take the Sun Devils straight up in tonight's matchup.

Go Wings tonight! We desperately need to defeat the Hurricanes.

Holla!!!!

Cincinnati @ St. John's

Last night can be deemed a success as the equation correctly picked VCU to defeat Hofstra. The win improves its record to 4-1. Tonight the equation suggests that you should take Cincinnati straight up to defeat St. John's in a Big East battle.

I'm hoping to get the sample size to around 50 or 60 by the time March swings around. If anybody has any suggestions on upcoming games for the equation to predict please let me know by commenting on the post or sending me an e-mail (phatsix@hotmail.com).

The Buckeyes win last night was stellar and ET showed why he should be thought of for player of the year in college hoops.

Enjoy some hoops tonight and remember to get a little wild from time to time (if we were playing the Rod Allen Drinking Game that would have been 7 drinks for "time to time").

holla!

Game of the Day

Virginia Commonwealth @ Hofstra

The handy NCAA equation has VCU coming out victorious on the road against Hofstra. It shouldn't be as close as the -2 line suggests.

After Oklahoma defeated Oklahoma State last night in Bedlam the equation's record fell to 3-1 on the year. The sample size is not nearly large enough to tell if the 75% success rate is significant or not. Keep checking back in throughout the NCAA hoops season to see how the equation does. I will be constantly tweaking it throughout the year gearing it up for the neutral/sub-neutral court NCAA tournament games.

Enjoy and Go Bucks beat the boilers!!!

Halfway to 50

Yesterday I posted my 25th win of the year on ESPN's Streak for Cash. This means that I am only 25 wins away from the 50 win milestone. Just to remind you all when I hit the 50 win plateau the first person to text or tweet me will win a complimentary shot from me (a.k.a Big Phil).

Eddie give that lucky wooden nickel the biz so we can win some games today.

Fiddle em.

Game of the Day

I have now begun adjusting my NCAA Basketball equation to get it ready for the NCAA tournament in March. I will try and post the team that it picks to win in the game of the day as frequently as possible. Today's game of the day is the first of 2 "Bedlam" battles between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Even with the game being played at Oklahoma the line is still 0. My equation, however, has the Cowboys as decent to above decent favorites so there is a ton of value in betting on Oklahoma State to win straight up.

Please write in with your picks whenever you would like.

Before I forget, let me congratulate Jeff Claeys on his 1st place finish in our College Football Bowl pool this year. He dominated the pool like a ferocious rattle snake. Holla.

ET is sick and I don't mean walking into an overflowed port-a-potty sick.

My NCAA hoops equation has Wisconsin winning a very close game against Purdue today. Both are elite teams according to the equation. And G-Mode I do enloy FBB.

Figures. My fantasy basketball squad has Gilbert Arenas' crazy gun show on it. Where will I find another agent 0 for my team?

Not happy that some dude tied my first place win streak of 11 in the trillion man march group. It's time to do work.

Not happy that some dude tied my first place win streak of 11 in the trillion man march group. It's time to do work.

Titus is in the game! Please give us a Trill!

No Momentum

I have been unable to get a streak going the past few days and it is starting to irritate me. I figure in order to win the $2500 for the most wins in a month I will probably have to win between 3 and 4 games a day. Winning only 1 game yesterday was very disappointing.
The only thing that will cheer me up is this awesome photo of Millsy, Bondo, and Myself posing for a picture after we discussed the future endeavors of Queen Elizabeth and her passion for thumb wrestling.

I am struggling to find a flight to Vegas for under 450 so winning some streaking money would be huge for me.

G-Mode and Colf just joined the wild knees on bows streaking group to bring our total to 5 members. In order to boost the numbers, I will purchase the next person to join a Bell's Winter White Ale to pour down their hatch. Holla at some fun and shennanigans with kneesonbows.

Eddie, You son of a gun

I can't believe Eddie took those no-talent ass clowns (Seville FC) to lose be 1 goal or less. At this moment (5:23 PM EST) it looks as if Eddie is going to win his pick and move closer to my insurmountable win total. I'm just blowing off some steam so I apologize for this crappy post. Enjoy a great evening tonight kneesonbows nation.

Peace. Tranquility. Happiness.

Happy Birthday Mom!!

I just wanted to give a quick birthday holla to my lovely mother, Michaeline Harner. If you are reading this mom, and you probably aren't, Happy Birthday (yesterday) and enjoy some fun for me!!

For anyone who is up for it, we will be enjoying $2 books at fox and the hound later this afternoon. Russian roulette and quarters will be played and I will dominate in both as usual.

If anyone sees or talks to Tiph please tell him that I will be giving him the biz in monopoly shortly. I've been practicing like a mad Egyptian and I'm feeing great about the state of my monopoly skills.

One last thing, with TCU's 7-point loss to Boise State last night all Texas has to do to win the mythical National Championship Tournament is lose by less than 7 to Alabama. If I am able to somehow upload the brackets I will.

Surry, one more item, follow Millsy and Eddie's lead and join the knees on bows streak for cash group and see if you can outpick me. Just to warn you, I'm a damn genius streaker. The person with the most wins each month receives a prize still to be determined. Feel free to post ideas. Holla!

Streak for Cash win total is up to 10. That means only 40 more wins until one lucky person wins a free shot. Acon was the shot winner for win 300 last year.

Milsy joins the greatest Streaking club in the nation

Millsy has taken a step in the right direction and finally joined the Knees On Bows Streak for Cash group. This brings the groups grand total to 2. Anyone who wants to join is more than welcome and invite your friends. The person with the longest streak each month will receive a unique charlie from yours truly.

Big Phil remains 2 games ahead of me in the bowl pick 'em with 4 games to play. Does anyone remember what our friendly wager was for our competition, cause I sure don't.

Big game this afternoon in streak for cash as I have picked Patrick Thistle to win in some wild Scotish soccer match to extend my streak to 9. This is what I would like to call a blind pick and I flipped a quarter to decide who I would take. Go PT!!

Happy New Year Kneesonbows Nation!!

Happy New Year!!! Kneesonbows wishes everyone a healthy and prosperous new year. With that said, back to the business of Big Phil giving me the business in college bowl pick em. After a wild afternoon of football on New Year's Eve, Big Phil increased his lead over my extremely mediocre equation to 3 games. Big Phil now has the best overall record in the pool at 13-7, while I am at a coin flip probability of 10-10. The ironic thing is Big Phil chose his games by flipping a quarter.

With Streak for Cash resetting for the new year, I have decided to offer a new challenge. The first person to text or tweet me when I reach a 50-win mark(i.e. 50,100, 150, etc.) will receive a celebratory shot from yours truly. Also, for those of you who want to challenge my game predicting ability can compete against me in my Streak for Cash group named Knees On Bows.

Enjoy the bowls today, especially the Rose Bowl. Go Bucks!!!!